PaperMinerals

Verified Processing Evidence for Critical Mineral Investment Decisions

A decision framework with reproducible simulation diagnostics and a prospective Kenyan fluorspar validation study

Derrick Macharia · Pawanax AI

Published 2026-10-10 · Version 1.0 · 10 pages

DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24088029 · Archived on Zenodo · CC BY-NC 4.0 (no commercial use)

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Abstract

A methods and simulation study proposing how investors and governments can weigh evidence that minerals were actually processed where claimed. It combines three evidence layers across 20,000 simulated paths and five conditions, reports failure modes rather than hiding them inside a single accuracy score, and pre-specifies a prospective field validation on Kenyan fluorspar. Data are synthetic; field validation and buyer adoption remain prospective.

  • critical minerals
  • processing in place
  • simulation
  • fluorspar
  • traceability

How to cite

Derrick Macharia (2026). Verified Processing Evidence for Critical Mineral Investment Decisions (Version 1.0). Pawanax AI. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24088029

@techreport{macharia2026verified,
  author = {Derrick Macharia},
  title = {{Verified Processing Evidence for Critical Mineral Investment Decisions}},
  institution = {Pawanax AI},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Version 1.0},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.24088029},
  url = {https://pawanalife.com/research/verified-processing-critical-minerals}
}

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