F12027-01-15
Brent settles above $90 on 15 Jan 2027
Probability
65%
Pawanax AI · Raising $1.5M
Care and cash,
on the app Africa already opens.
Clinical AI for doctors. A WhatsApp health agent for families. Remittance at 3.5% that funds a health kitty. In a year that made everything more expensive, we make care cheaper to reach.
- remittances to medical care / yr
- $630M
- remittances to medical care / yr
- cheaper than legacy SSA sends
- 4.96pp
- cheaper than legacy SSA sends
- raise · 18-month runway
- $1.5M
- raise · 18-month runway
- forecasts on the record
- 12
- forecasts on the record
Why now · 2026 in two charts
A war closed a strait. Kenya's kitchens and clinics paid the bill.
Evidence snapshot · 2026-10-16
Brent nearly doubled in a quarter when Hormuz closed. Kenyan inflation went from 4.3% to 6.8% as fuel passed through to food and transport, and 77.6% of tax revenue now goes to servicing debt. When public budgets tighten, families pay for care themselves, mostly through money sent home. That's the flow we make cheaper and point at care.
| 2026-01-30 | $71 |
| 2026-02-27 | $71 |
| 2026-03-31 | $118 |
| 2026-04-30 | $114 |
| 2026-05-29 | $104 |
| 2026-06-30 | $75 |
| 2026-07-08 | $78 |
| 2026-08-20 | $95 |
| 2026-09-02 | $96 |
| 2026-10-13 | $106 |
| 2026-02 | 4.3% |
| 2026-03 | 4.4% |
| 2026-05 | 6.7% |
| 2026-07 | 6.5% |
| 2026-08 | 6.6% |
| 2026-09 | 6.8% |
$5.04B
Kenya formal remittances, 2025
12.5% of value goes to medical care — about $630M a year.
8.46%
Average cost to send money to SSA
World Bank RPW, Q3 2025. Pawanax: 3.5% all-in with the health kitty on.
77.6%
Kenya tax revenue spent on debt service
October 2026. Public health budgets are squeezed; families fill the gap.
≈9,150
Confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases, mid-Oct 2026
No approved vaccine. An imported case reached Nairobi on 6 Oct.
The full year, chapter by chapter, with every number sourced: The Signal Ledger: 2026, Read Backwards →
The system
Two surfaces. One identity graph linking care and cash.
Doctor's Assistant
BuiltEvidence-grounded clinical AI plus practice tooling: prescriptions, records, pharmacy links, referrals and telemedicine by tier.
Personal AI Agent
BuiltWhatsApp (+254 735 636 778): health triage, memory, entertainment, and sending USDC / USDT / EURC on Base. Zero install.
Unit economics · interactive
Move the sliders. The model is public.
Every price comes from our public pricing. Remittance: 2.0% platform plus an opt-in 1.5% kitty, 3.5% all-in versus about 8.46% for legacy Sub-Saharan corridors.
Annual recurring revenue
$104,195
Subscriptions KES 994,934/mo + remittance $1,000/mo.
Defaults are our 90-day Sales Machine targets — targets, not traction. Prices from the public pricing canon; KES 129.5/USD.
The path to $1M
Subscriptions compound. Consultancy funds the climb.
Subscriptions alone won't reach $1M in year one; we've done the arithmetic. A 13-person intern Sales Machine opens doors at clinics, SACCOs and campuses, and consultancy closes the larger rooms. The 90-day target is 100 paying customers and KES 1,084,904 in monthly recurring revenue.
Targets, not traction. We report actuals against them.
- Subscriptions (MRR ramp KES 1.1M at day 90 → KES 4M at month 12)$190,00019%
- 13 × Discovery Diagnostic$364,00035%
- 5 × WhatsApp Agent Factory$240,00023%
- 2 × Clinical AI Pilot$130,00013%
- 2 × Advisory Retainer (6 months)$102,00010%
12-month bookings plan$1,026,000
The ask
$1,500,000
Initial close $600,000 · 18 months of operating runway · KES 195,000,000 at KES 130/USD
Pawanax AI — healthcare, enterprise AI & academy$900,000
Matawis — agricultural commerce & analytics$600,000
Use of funds
- Team & delivery$684,00046%
- Contingency, collections & expansion reserve$276,00018%
- AI models, GPUs & cloud$180,00012%
- Sales, field deployment, clinical evaluation & training$162,00011%
- Equipment, office setup & prototypes$90,0006%
- Shared Nairobi office$54,0004%
- Legal, accounting, insurance & governance$54,0004%
About $63k/month at full operating scale. Hiring is staged, and the reserve stays protected until milestones justify releasing it. The line-item budget, including founder compensation, is in the data room.
What the first close unlocks in 6 months
- 1
Enterprise AI
4 completed implementations and 3 paying retainers with measured customer outcomes
- 2
Healthcare
Paying clinical deployments with clinician oversight, evaluation and renewal evidence
- 3
Academy
2 completed cohorts with assessed portfolios and employer demand
- 4
Matawis
3–5 paying anchor customers, repeat transactions and measured contribution margin
- 5
Operations
Shared Nairobi office, accountable delivery leads, monthly financial reporting
Care, connected
One conversation can bring clinical guidance closer to the people who need it.
AI-generated editorial concept, not proof of deployment.Forecasts on the record
We put probabilities in public and let reality score them.
Registered 16 October 2026. Each resolves YES or NO on a date and is scored with the Brier score, where always saying 50% scores 0.25 and lower is better. We publish the score either way.
| # | Resolves YES if… | Probability | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Brent settles above $90 on 15 Jan 2027 | 65% | 2027-01-15 |
| F2 | Brent settles above $120 on any day before 15 Jan 2027 | 25% | 2027-01-15 |
| F3 | Fed raises rates again by its January 2027 meeting | 40% | 2027-01-31 |
| F4 | Central Bank of Kenya raises the CBR before 28 Feb 2027 | 30% | 2027-02-28 |
| F5 | Kenya December 2026 CPI ≥ 7.0% | 55% | 2027-01-05 |
| F6 | WHO Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC still in force on 31 Jan 2027 | 80% | 2027-01-31 |
| F7 | Kenya confirms a locally acquired Bundibugyo case by 31 Jan 2027 | 20% | 2027-01-31 |
| F8 | FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 above 136.0 | 60% | 2027-01-08 |
| F9 | US 10-year Treasury closes above 5.50% before 31 Jan 2027 | 30% | 2027-01-31 |
| F10 | Nasdaq closes ≥ 15% below its 2026 high before 16 Apr 2027 | 35% | 2027-04-16 |
| F11 | Two of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google ship a new flagship generation before 31 Jan 2027 | 85% | 2027-01-31 |
| F12 | Kenya reports ≥ 50 flood deaths in the Oct–Dec 2026 short rains | 45% | 2027-01-15 |
F22027-01-15
Brent settles above $120 on any day before 15 Jan 2027
Probability
25%
F32027-01-31
Fed raises rates again by its January 2027 meeting
Probability
40%
F42027-02-28
Central Bank of Kenya raises the CBR before 28 Feb 2027
Probability
30%
F52027-01-05
Kenya December 2026 CPI ≥ 7.0%
Probability
55%
F62027-01-31
WHO Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC still in force on 31 Jan 2027
Probability
80%
F72027-01-31
Kenya confirms a locally acquired Bundibugyo case by 31 Jan 2027
Probability
20%
F82027-01-08
FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 above 136.0
Probability
60%
F92027-01-31
US 10-year Treasury closes above 5.50% before 31 Jan 2027
Probability
30%
F102027-04-16
Nasdaq closes ≥ 15% below its 2026 high before 16 Apr 2027
Probability
35%
F112027-01-31
Two of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google ship a new flagship generation before 31 Jan 2027
Probability
85%
F122027-01-15
Kenya reports ≥ 50 flood deaths in the Oct–Dec 2026 short rains
Probability
45%
How we got here, month by month: read The Signal Ledger
Pawanax Health Mutual
DesignedRemittance that funds a health mutual kitty
An opt-in slice of each transfer builds the Pawanax Health Mutual, a harambee for afya (a collective fund for health). Clinical AI assists claims, and payouts go to network providers.
Fee design
Default 2.0% platform + 1.5% kitty = 3.5% when opted in. High-cover option: 4.0%. Both are well below legacy Sub-Saharan corridors.
Guardrails
- Reserves in USDC on Base. No contract addresses disclosed.
- Partner-first with licensed insurers (IRA). We are not a licensed underwriter.
Traction
What is live, honestly
Actuals and signed commitments are added to the data room as they are recorded.
1,776
internship & academy applications
1,755 in the last 90 days
12,158
WhatsApp agent messages handled
across 167 user profiles
5,329
epidemic-surveillance alerts generated
from 24 monitored data sources
259
registered platform accounts
plus 82 stablecoin wallets
Live counts from our production database · 2026-10-16. Demand for the academy is the clearest signal: people are queuing to learn how we build.
- Stripe billing live for clinical plans.Built
- Stablecoin transfer rail built: USDC, USDT, EURC on Base.Built
- WhatsApp agent with health, money and entertainment tools.Built
- Early wallet and WhatsApp users, and pilots.Built
- 13-seat intern Sales Machine with a public 90-day scoreboard.Designed
- Insurance claims data model exists; on-chain pool designed.Designed
- Wearable and clinic-edge sensing that feeds the same agent.Roadmap
Risks we underwrite
Trust starts with naming the hard parts
Macro squeeze (2026)
Price in KES, sell measurable savings first, and keep 18% of the raise as a protected reserve.
Spreading ourselves too thin
At most two commercial pilots per 90 days; consultancy only where it feeds product.
VASP / custody compliance (Kenya)
Build and partner with regulated rails; disclose only what policy allows.
IRA licensing for indemnity
Partner-first with licensed insurers, with no claim to be an underwriter.
Clinical safety
Clinician oversight, escalation paths and evaluation before every deployment claim.
FX and spread compression
Transparent basis-point fees, not an opaque FX markup.
Public founder thesis
Kenya Vision 2060: Sovereign Intelligence
Derrick Macharia's 56-page operating thesis for turning abundant machine intelligence into Kenyan-owned prosperity across energy, agrifood, cyber trust, programmable settlement and regional infrastructure.
Published by Matawis AI in partnership with Pawanax AI. Strategic research only; not investment advice.
Investor FAQ
The short answers
What does Pawanax AI build?+
Pawanax AI builds clinical AI for doctors and clinics, a WhatsApp health agent for families, and low-cost stablecoin remittance (USDC/USDT/EURC on Base) whose opt-in slice funds the Pawanax Health Mutual. Headquarters: Nairobi, Kenya. Founded 2024.
How much is Pawanax raising?+
A combined $1.5M across Pawanax AI ($900k) and Matawis ($600k), with an initial close of $600k and 18 months of runway. Terms are shared with qualified investors via the data room.
What will the money be used for?+
Team & delivery: $684,000; Contingency, collections & expansion reserve: $276,000; AI models, GPUs & cloud: $180,000; Sales, field deployment, clinical evaluation & training: $162,000; Equipment, office setup & prototypes: $90,000; Shared Nairobi office: $54,000; Legal, accounting, insurance & governance: $54,000.
How does Pawanax make money?+
Clinical SaaS (Starter KES 4,999 → Pro 24,999 → Clinic 69,999 → Enterprise from 249,999 per month), WhatsApp packages (Medical KES 4,999), consultancy, and a 2.0% remittance platform fee plus an opt-in 1.5% health kitty — 3.5% all-in versus about 8.46% for legacy Sub-Saharan Africa corridors.
What traction does Pawanax have?+
As of 2026-10-16: 1,776 internship & academy applications; 12,158 WhatsApp agent messages handled; 5,329 epidemic-surveillance alerts generated; 259 registered platform accounts. Built: Stripe billing, a stablecoin rail on Base, and a WhatsApp agent with health, money and entertainment tools. Designed: the on-chain health mutual pool. Pawanax does not publish invented revenue or letters of intent.
Is Pawanax a licensed insurer?+
No. The Pawanax Health Mutual is an opt-in kitty funded by a slice of remittances. Pawanax partners with licensed insurers under Kenya IRA frameworks and does not claim to be a licensed underwriter.
Does Pawanax publish forecasts?+
Yes. On 16 October 2026 Pawanax registered 12 dated, binary forecasts (oil, rates, Kenya inflation, Ebola, AI, floods) and will score them with the Brier score on resolution. See https://pawanalife.com/blog/signal-ledger-2026-read-backwards.
Every clinic we reach is a referral that doesn't get missed.
The data room is NDA-gated for qualified investors: terms, the line-item budget, the actuals and the model.
This page is for information only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.